| Market |
Median Asking Rent |
1‑Month Δ |
1‑Year Δ |
Active Listings |
| Texas (statewide) |
$1,750 |
0 $ |
‑$200 |
75,915 |
| Austin |
$1,900 |
+ $22 |
‑$375 |
6,047 |
| Dallas |
$1,650 |
+ $39 |
‑$356 |
3,930 |
| Houston |
$1,660 |
‑ $40 |
‑$239 |
9,203 |
| San Antonio |
$1,600 |
≈0 $ |
‑$125 |
5,667 |
1. Executive takeaways
- Statewide rents are running 5 % below the U.S. average ($1,850). After a $200 slide year‑over‑year, prices have flattened month‑to‑month.
- Every major metro is still cheaper than a year ago, but the pace of decline is slowing; Austin and Dallas have already ticked up slightly in the last 30 days.
- Supply is abundant: Zillow lists nearly 76 k available units statewide—roughly one listing for every 50 renter households.
- Developers are hitting the brakes. New‑start volume across Houston, Austin and Dallas fell more than 50 % in Q1‑2025 versus 2023, according to RealPage.
- RealPage expects effective rents to turn positive again (~2.5–3 % YoY) in 2H‑2025 as the construction wave recedes.
2. What’s happening on the ground?
|
Austin |
Dallas–Fort Worth |
Houston |
San Antonio |
| Driver |
Post‑building glut easing; concessions shrinking |
Class‑A oversupply still heavy |
Most affordable of the “big 3”; steady in‑migration |
Budget option; new build‑to‑rent stock |
| Vacancy (RealPage) |
~10 % ↓ |
~12 % → |
~9 % → |
~10.5 % ↑ |
| Typical concessions |
4‑6 wks free + parking |
6‑8 wks free + gift cards |
2‑4 wks free, free move‑in |
1 mo free in luxury |
| 2H‑2025 rent outlook |
+3–4 % |
+1–2 % |
+2.5–3 % |
+1 % |
3. Supply pipeline & new starts
- Record deliveries 2024: ±95 k new units across the “big four” metros.
- Starts plunge: fewer than 6 k units broke ground in Houston in 2024—lowest since 2010.
- 2025 forecast: 14–27 k completions per metro, still high but down ~25–30 % YoY.
4. Affordability check
- Renters spend 28‑30 % of median household income on housing in most large Texas metros; Houston is the standout at ~21 %, Austin the stretch case at ~33 %.
- Renting vs. owning gap: in Austin, monthly ownership costs run ~$1 000 higher than renting; Houston’s gap is ~$850. (Zillow ZHVI & mortgage math.)
5. Tactics for renters (May–July 2025)
- Negotiate: with median time‑on‑market near 30 days, landlords are still offering 1–2 months free in many Class‑A buildings.
- Target new deliveries: lease‑up properties carry the steepest incentives.
- Lock a 14‑ or 15‑month lease to straddle the near‑term bottom before 2026 rebounds.
- Compare ZIPs: Inside Austin, the spread between trendy 78704 ($2,100) and Cedar Park 78613 ($1,530) is almost 30 %.
- Watch “junk fees”: rising insurance costs are being passed through as $15‑30 monthly add‑ons, especially along the Gulf Coast.
6. Outlook to year‑end 2025
| Metric (Texas) |
2024 |
2025 (forecast) |
| Average rent growth (ZORI) |
–1.8 % |
+2.5 % |
| New units delivered |
95 k |
~65 k |
| Average vacancy |
11 % |
9.5 % |
| Typical concessions |
6 wks |
4 wks |
Bottom line: Spring’s renter‑friendly window is closing. As construction starts dry up and absorption normalizes, landlords will regain leverage, pushing rents back into positive territory by late‑2025.
Data sources: Zillow Rental Manager, Zillow Research (ZORI), Apartment List National Rent Report, RealPage Analytics webcast & forecast.
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